In the strategic management of public and governmental organizations, the most significant risks and most valuable opportunities are rarely those in plain sight. Leaders who build their strategies in response to visible problems and immediate reports are like captains navigating a vessel by focusing only on the visible tip of an iceberg, ignoring the massive, hidden bulk that holds the true power to set a course or sink the entire ship.
The first and most fundamental step in the "Tafkeer" methodology is mastering the art of deep diagnosis. We do not rely on traditional frameworks that merely categorize superficial observations. Instead, we adopt the "Iceberg Model" as a powerful analytical tool to distinguish between the transient and the structural, between symptoms and their root causes. In our perspective, "Understanding the Current Situation" is not an inventory process; it is a strategic investigation that uncovers the hidden forces shaping your organization's reality and its future.
Anatomy of the Iceberg: The Four Levels of Strategic Reality
To fully comprehend reality, we must deconstruct it into its interconnected levels. Each level explains the one above it, and the most effective intervention always occurs at the deepest possible level.
Level 1: Events (The Tip of the Iceberg)
This is the visible level we see and react to every day: a public relations crisis, a quarterly performance report, a stakeholder complaint, the launch of a new service. This is the realm of "reaction." Management that operates only at this level finds itself constantly firefighting, moving from one crisis to the next without addressing the causes.
Level 2: Patterns and Trends (Just Below the Surface)
Here, we begin to dive below the surface. This level is about observing the recurrence of events over time. A single complaint is an event; the same complaint recurring every month is a pattern. A performance dip in one report is an event; a decline for three consecutive quarters is a trend. Analysis at this level allows us to shift from reaction to anticipation.
Level 3: Systemic Structures (The Deep Structure)
This is the level that answers the question, "Why?" What is causing these patterns to emerge? Structures are the hidden "rules of the game": policies, procedures, organizational hierarchies, and the flow of power and information. For example, a pattern of "delayed projects" might be caused by a complex and bureaucratic approval structure. Changing the structure automatically changes the pattern.
Level 4: Mental Models (The Deepest Foundation)
This is the deepest and most influential level. It is the level of beliefs, values, and ingrained assumptions held by individuals that support the existence of the systemic structures. Why do we have a complex approval structure? The cause might be a mental model based on "a lack of trust" or "a fear of decision-making." Changing mental models is the most difficult, but it is the only intervention that creates true, sustainable transformation.
The Diagnostic Methodology: Asking the Right Questions
The "Tafkeer" methodology applies this model by asking precise, probing questions at each level, transforming analysis from a passive process into an active strategic dialogue.
- At the Events Level: What just happened? Who was affected? How did we respond?
- At the Patterns Level: Have we seen this before? What data proves this pattern's recurrence? What is the frequency and direction of this trend?
- At the Structures Level: What policies or procedures are contributing to this pattern? How does the power structure and resource allocation influence this situation? What are the unwritten "rules of the game"?
- At the Mental Models Level: What assumptions are we holding that make this structure seem logical? What values are we unconsciously prioritizing? What would we have to believe differently to create a radical change?